U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product [GDP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP, May 25, 2023.
- This note provides an analysis of U.S. GDP performance since 1947 and offers several observations from the data.
- Data from 1947-01-01 to 2023-01-01
- Units: Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
- Frequency: Quarterly
- Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output, is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.
- Q1 2023 value: 26,486 billion, which is an increase of
- 4,948 billion and 22.97% in 3 years, representing a 7.14% CAGR[1], and a 1.61% average growth rate[2],
- 6,331 billion and 31.41% in 5 years, representing a 5.61% CAGR, and a 1.41% average growth rate,
- 9,857 billion and 59.28% in 10 years, representing a 4.76% CAGR, and a 1.20% average growth rate,
- 4,948 billion and 22.97% since Q1 2020, representing a 7.14% CAGR, and a 1.61% average growth rate,
- 12,055 billion and 83.54% since Q1 2009, representing a 4.43% CAGR, and a 1.07% average growth rate,
- 18,964 billion and 251.10% since Q1 1995, representing a 4.60% CAGR, and a 1.14% average growth rate,
- 26,243 billion and 10,792.36% since Q1 1947, representing a 6.37% CAGR, and a 1.56% average growth rate,
- There were 12 recognized recessions since 1947, here are their dates, durations, and GDP % changes:
- 1949-01-01 to 1949-10-01, 4 quarters, -1.60%
- 1953-07-01 to 1954-04-01, 4 quarters, -1.29%
- 1957-07-01 to 1958-04-01, 4 quarters, -1.57%
- 1960-04-01 to 1961-01-01, 4 quarters, -0.73%
- 1970-01-01 to 1970-10-01, 4 quarters, -3.56%
- 1974-01-01 to 1975-01-01, 5 quarters, -8.38%
- 1980-01-01 to 1980-07-01, 3 quarters, 2.39%
- 1981-07-01 to 1982-10-01, 6 quarters, 4.35%
- 1990-07-01 to 1991-01-01, 3 quarters, 0.33%
- 2001-04-01 to 2001-10-01, 3 quarters, 0.58%
- 2008-01-01 to 2009-04-01, 6 quarters, -2.21%
- 2020-01-01 to 2020-07-01, 3 quarters, -0.82%
- As of Q1 2023, the last 12 quarters had a positive growth rate. The percent of negative quarters since various dates is as follows:
- 15.38% since Q1 2020
- 7.02% since Q1 2009
- 6.19% since Q1 1995
- 6.23% since Q1 1947
- The volatility of U.S. GDP, measured as the standard deviation of quarterly GDP % change, since 1947 is 0.013. This dataset includes 305 quarterly data points, representing an overall 10,792% gain and an average quarterly growth rate of 1.56%. Here is the U.S. GDP performance in the last 7 decades:
- 1st, Years 1969-1979, decade % change 174.2%, volatility 0.0101, CAGR 10.6%
- 2nd, Years 1980-1990, decade % change 116.3%, volatility 0.01, CAGR 8%
- 3rd, Years 1958-1968, decade % change 107%, volatility 0.0104, CAGR 7.5%
- 4th, Years 1947-1957, decade % change 93.1%, volatility 0.017, CAGR 6.9%
- 5th, Years 1991-2001, decade % change 76.6%, volatility 0.05, CAGR 5.9%
- 6th, Years 2013-2023, decade % change 59.3%, volatility 0.021, CAGR 4.8%
- 7th, Years 2002-2012, decade % change 52.3%, volatility 0.008, CAGR 4.3%
- The largest changes in GDP were:
- Single quarter increases:
- 1st, Q3 2020, 8.79%
- 2nd, Q3 1950, 6.12%
- 3rd, Q2 1978, 5.85%
- 4th, Q1 1951, 5.02%
- 5th, Q1 1981, 4.64%
- Single quarter decreases:
- 1st, Q2 2020, -8.83%
- 2nd, Q4 2008, -1.95%
- 3rd, Q1 1949, -1.90%
- 4th, Q1 1985, -1.54%
- 5th, Q2 1949, -1.34%
- TTM quarterly increases:
- 1st, Q1 1951, 19.65%
- 2nd, Q1 1979, 14.70%
- 3rd, Q1 1976, 12.65%
- 4th, Q1 1984, 12.51%
- 5th, Q1 1981, 11.99%
- TTM quarterly decreases:
- 1st, Q1 2009, -1.87%
- 2nd, Q1 1954, -0.68%
- 3rd, Q1 1958, -0.48%
- Uninterrupted growth streaks:
- 1st, 1960-10-01 to 1981-10-01, 507.3%
- 2nd tied, 1990-10-01 to 2001-04-01, 76.51%
- 2nd tied, 2009-04-01 to 2019-10-1, 50.94%
- Uninterrupted declines:
- 1st tied, 1953-04-01 to 1954-01-01, -1.63%
- 1st tied, 2008-07-01 to 2009-04-01, -3.48%
- 2nd, 1948-10-01 to 1949-04-01, -3.22%.
- Single quarter increases:
